The article presents a methodological framework for a hierarchical system of indicators designed to assess the stability and adaptive potential of Crimea’s tourist and recreational systems under conditions of increasing recreational and anthropogenic pressure. It substantiates the necessity of shifting from traditional economic and statistical indicators to diagnosing the adaptive capacity of tourist and recreational systems, which takes into account key threats: high seasonality, infrastructural constraints, water resource scarcity, and the level of institutional preparedness. Based on systemic and comparative geographical analysis, a three-tier model (regional, sub-regional, and local levels) was developed, incorporating four integral indicators: Seasonal Concentration Coefficient, Recreational Infrastructure Load Index, Water Stress Indicator, and Institutional Readiness Index. Using the comparative analysis of the Southern Coast of Crimea and the Western Coast tourist and recreational systems as an example, the practical value of the system for differential diagnosis of vulnerabilities and for formulating specific management decisions is demonstrated. The research results provide a foundation for transitioning to adaptive territorial planning in accordance with the objectives of the national project “Tourism and Hospitality”.